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This is probably the competitive race where things have changed the least since January.
Fast forward three months, and they landed one, and not just any one: that challenger is incumbent Governor and former Presidential candidate Steve Bullock, who is really the only possible candidate that could have put the state in play.
Still, as stated previously, a lot of money seems primed to pour into this race from the outside, as the Senate Leadership Fund (R) has booked $12.6 M in ad reservations for Iowa, while the Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC countered with $13.1 M in ad buys for the state. The Safe R pile remains unchanged from last time.
Sign In | Subscribe Ad-Free. : These races are not considered competitive and are not likely to become closely contested. For now, Democrats are on almost complete offense, and they would like to keep it that way into November. However, the polling for the US Senate race is more mixed and also lacking in data overall. Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham has mounted a solid campaign that has gained steam since the last time I wrote about the Senate races, winning his primary despite strong Republican funding for challenger Erica Smith.
Current balance: 53 Republicans, 47 Democrats (including 2 Independents) i In some ways this race does not look unlike the 2018 Florida Senate race, where an incumbent Governor (Rick Scott) used his perceived positive handling of a crisis (Hurricane Irma) to get a bump in his approval rating and thus a springboard to a Senate race against an incumbent. ), to McSally’s $6.4 M and now has $19.7 M in the bank (!!!!!!!) Thus, to me, an incumbent Republican Senator in a state that Trump seems slightly favored to carry in the fall, starts off with a fundamental edge (a rule I also apply to Montana below), and that’s why this race is in the Lean R column. While he was always a moderately popular Governor, the MSU poll showed that 70% (!) Currently, there are 53 Republican Senators, so Democrats would need a … ^ Excludes AZ & GA seats with special elections in 2020.
He has money, but all other indicators are stacked against him. With just under 6 months to go until Election Day 2020, where do things stand in the overall battle for control in the US Senate? We have little new polling and the fundraising data only confirms our priors about the race, that former Governor and Presidential candidate John Hickenlooper (D) should be considered a clear favorite over incumbent Senator Cory Gardner (R) in this blue-leaning swing state. The winners will be elected to six-year terms extending from January 3, 2021, to January 3, 2027. Higher bars represent more common outcomes. Montana is a cheap state to run a campaign in given its small population, and the $3.3 M Bullock raised would be a lot for Montana even in Q3 of 2020 (the one before the election).
RATINGS SUMMARY. McGrath ran for Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District in 2018, losing by a narrow margin in a district that is well to the left of the state overall. Lewis is a controversial former talk radio host who was beaten soundly two years ago in a seat that is to the right of the state as a whole and is now struggling to raise money for this race.
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