Roaring Rockets

Necessarily, more OLR makes it out of the atmosphere from higher altitudes than from lower or surface radiation sources. If CO2 isn't as powerful as water vapor, which there's already a lot of, adding a little more CO2 couldn't be that bad, right? Here is a related lecture-video from Denial101x - Making Sense of Climate Science Denial, total warming from a potential 1°C change caused by CO2 is, in reality, as much as 3°C, CO2 stays in our atmosphere for years and even centuries, Denial101x - Making Sense of Climate Science Denial, Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License.

There are many other examples in which models address convective updrafts of air masses, because this is a standard feature of radiative/convective equilibrium.

When other feedback loops are included, the total warming from a potential 1°C change caused by CO2 is, in reality, as much as 3°C. Fred, “I would say that the net positivity of water vapor feedback is now well established.”. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL068406/abstract;jsessionid=D9B8CE954979902C28851B4F282C30BD.f03t03.

Prior to this time, atmospheric CO2 concentrations were steady at 280ppm (parts per million). I don’t know who is missing the point here.


VTG “If a model give high climate sensitivity, it is due to clouds.” When Held says models “very robustly maintain more or less constant relative humidity”, there are small changes in relative humidity, but they represent large amounts of energy. After all all 19 models used by the IPCC predicted positive cloud feedback at this point. Thanks for writing a great blog.

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The relative importance of the cooling and warming effects depends on things like cloud location, density, and altitude. Whether we can call these positive feedbacks is uncertain, but they are not net negative cloud feedbacks. You wrote: “Most of the work assumes a breakpoint occurring at 20 years (1-20 vs 21-150 yrs).”.

angech wrote: “The net planetary cooling if clouds is 5 times the warming of a doubling of CO2 … the relative importance of the cooling effect far outweighs the minor details mentioned.”. With respect to low cloud feedbacks, they go on to say: Air mass cannot move up or down in the models. Some time ago Dr. V. Pratt had a go at that one:

The earth is spinning and conservation of momentum, heat, mass is applied to each block. When it’s time for the fallout I agree that latent heat is generally not simply released at the altitude of emission to space.

If we now warm the atmosphere so that it expands to 11 Km, the altitude between 10 and 11 Km will have a positive density rather than the previous density of zero.

The tropopause is a near infinite heat sink with respect to the troposphere. Running the calculation on MODTRAN using the 1976 US Standard Atmosphere with constant RH, it’s not 1 for 1.

The fourth root of 0.636 is about 0.893 or roughly 0.9, so the error in temperature would be only about 10 percent.

The water vapor feedback mechanism works in the following way: as the atmosphere warms due to human-caused increases in carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons, water vapor increases, trapping more heat in the atmosphere, which in turn causes a further increase in water vapor.

Well we do have boiling points, freezing points and now the magical adiabetic relative humidity Cloud puncturing point MARHCP point. Further convection in the tropics is critical to the existence of the “hot spot” which even consensus scientists are starting to admit is not really there.
I suggest you take a look at the series Visualizing Atmospheric Radiation to read about some basics and then ask questions.

The paper by Ban-Weiss et al. One can also explore this issue with MODTRAN. No, the amount of water is finite and only accessible easily directly over the oceans, this means that some of the water vapour has to travel in with the temperature changes from day to night. See this story about accurate forecasts All climate models show a combined WV+LR feedback of about +1.1 W/m2/K. The amount of energy reflected back is known More area covered by cloud, with the distribution otherwise the same, would lead to cooling. A small additional amount has a much more long-term effect.

Nice try, two different concepts. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_albedo. angech wrote: “describing CS as an emergent property”.

Contrary to your assertions, convective vertical displacement of air as a function of changing temperature (and to a lesser extent humidity) is one of the most extensively addressed features of climate change in models as well as in basic formulations. So a naive result, such as angech seems enamored of, should be a net positive feedback. You find it in textbooks, papers and also it is the basis of the way radiation works in climate models. ps: You’ve left out precipitation. It is continuous. “Thus an error of only about 10 percent in temperature”.

Approximately: C=-18 W/m2 currently (from above posts, I’ve not checked in the literature) This means that increased OLR from warming plus increased reflection of SWR can only total 1.2 W/m2/K. Having lived in Darwin I can vouch for the cloudiness in summer, 60 inches of rain and the clear skies in “winter”, still 28 C , but no rain for 6 months, the dry season.

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